Tuesday, January 19, 2010

Circumstantial evidence, piling up...

I've said that everything that's happened since the middle of last week has boded well for Scott Brown and ill for Martha Coakley. There haven't been any contrary indicators - everything's pointed to a Brown win. Everything.
Just about every election night, Republican pollster Frank Luntz assembles a focus group of likely voters to help predict election results. Tonight you can see Luntz interview an assembly of Massachusetts voters on Fox at 9:10 p.m. EST.

But you probably won’t see all the work that went into it. As of late this afternoon, Luntz was still scrambling to balance his focus group with supporters of Democrat Martha Coakley. “I just lost another one,” Luntz growled over his cell phone from a hotel ballroom at Logan Airport. In the last 24 hours, six Coakley voters have dropped out. By contrast, Luntz hasn’t lost a single supporter of her opponent, Scott Brown.

Instead, says Luntz, they’re ashamed. “They don’t want to be on television defending Martha Coakley. It’s passé. It’s socially unacceptable. I never dreamed I’d see Democrats in Massachusetts embarrassed to admit they’re Democrats.”

In all his years of running focus groups, Luntz remembers only a single other experience like this one. It was January of 2004, in Iowa....“All my Dean people quit two days out,” he remembers...It all comes back to Luntz now as he works to find bodies willing to represent Martha Coakley. “This is definition of collapse,” he says.
Polls close in 1 hour and 22 minutes...

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