A minority, but not a minority of one

I know that mine is a minority position (and the majority is very loud and vociferous) but I remain convinced of its rightness. And there are some others that agree...

advancednflstats.com:

You can play with the numbers any way you like, but it's pretty hard to come up with a realistic combination of numbers that make punting the better option. At best, you could make it a wash.

Neil Payne:

...even if you believed that Indy would win 70% of the time if you failed on 4th-and-2 and only 30% if you punted, it still comes out a wash... There's no doubt Belichick made the right decision.

Chase Stuart:

I doubt you can come up with convincing math that says it was overwhelmingly a bad call to go for it here.