Monday, October 05, 2009

Monday Pythagorean, 10/5/2009

162 down, somewhere from 3-to-21 left to play.

  • The four game sweep of Cleveland left the Red Sox at 95-67 for the second consecutive year. That gives them 95+ wins for the third consecutive year, and sixth out of the last seven.


  • So the Red Sox will start the playoffs on ... what's that? We don't know when they're going to start? Right. The Yankees, as the team with the best record, get to choose the schedule, and they've got until an hour after they know who their opponent will be to make the choice. And their opponent hasn't been decided yet, and won't be today because Minnesota won the coin toss and their building is hosting a football game today. I think everyone would be very surprised if the Yankees didn't take the schedule that started on Wednesday, leaving Boston and LAnaheim to start on Thursday, but we're still 36 hours away from knowing for sure.


  • There's a feeling of disappointment for some, and a feeling that maybe the team isn't as good as we want it to be. Part of that is a result of New York's outstanding second half, as the Sox did end up eight games behind the Yankees. But they finished tied with the Dodgers for the third best record in all of baseball (behind New York and Anaheim) and the finished with the third best run differential in baseball (behind New York and the Dodgers).


  • They also gave 32 starts to two veteran pitchers who they ended up cutting before the end of August. Overall, the Red Sox finished 95-67 (.586) with 872 runs scored and 736 runs allowed (pythagorean .577). But in games started by John Smoltz and Brad Penny, they were 13-19 (.406) with 171 runs scored and 193 runs allowed (pythagorean .445). In all other games, they were 82-48 (.631) with 701 runs scored and 543 runs allowed (pythagorean .615). John Smoltz and Brad Penny aren't going to be starting any games in the post-season. (Neither will the pre-rehab Daisuke Matsuzaka, in whose starts they were 2-6.) This is a very good baseball team, with four power starters, four power arms in the bullpen and a deep lineup that works pitchers and puts runs on the board. They've got as good a chance as anyone to win it all.


  • They could also lose the next three and be done. That's the way that baseball works.


  • Red Sox Player of the Week: - JD Drew hit .600/.600/1.600/2.200 with three HR, but he only played three games. Going to go with Jacoby Ellsbury, who hit .389/.500/.444/.944 with four stolen bases to finish the season with 70.


  • Red Sox Pitcher of the Week: - Several relievers made it through their final regular season appearances unscathed, but it has got to go to Jon Lester who came back from the scary line drive off his leg in New York to shut the Indians out for 6 1/3 in his final outing before game 1 of the playoffs.





AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 10/5/2009
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

New York5.65(1)4.65(6)0.588(1)9567103598

Boston5.38(3)4.54(2)0.577(2)936995672

Los Angeles5.48(2)4.73(10)0.568(3)927097655

Minnesota5.01(4)4.69(8)0.53(4)867686760

Tampa Bay4.96(5)4.65(7)0.529(5)86768478-2

Texas4.9(7)4.63(5)0.526(6)857787752

Toronto4.93(6)4.76(11)0.516(7)84787587-9

Detroit4.56(11)4.56(4)0.499(8)818186765

Oakland4.69(9)4.7(9)0.499(9)81817587-6

Chicago4.5(12)4.55(3)0.495(10)80827983-1

Seattle3.98(14)4.3(1)0.464(11)7587857710

Cleveland4.83(8)5.41(13)0.449(12)73896597-8

Baltimore4.57(10)5.41(14)0.424(13)69936498-5

Kansas City4.26(13)5.23(12)0.407(14)66966597-1




Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
New York10359

Los Angeles9765

Boston9567

Texas8775

Minnesota8676




Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
New York10359

Los Angeles9765

Boston9567

Texas8775

Minnesota8676




Standings for the week
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Chicago4.8(8)2.4(1)0.78(1)41420

Los Angeles5.43(4)2.86(3)0.764(2)52611

Seattle4.5(9)2.83(2)0.7(3)42511

Minnesota6.57(2)4.71(6)0.647(4)52520

Toronto7.5(1)6(11)0.601(5)4233-1

Tampa Bay5.29(6)4.29(4)0.595(6)43521

Baltimore5.29(6)4.43(5)0.58(7)43430

New York5.33(5)4.83(7)0.545(8)33330

Boston6.29(3)6.57(12)0.48(9)34431

Texas3.43(12)4.86(8)0.346(10)25250

Detroit3.43(12)4.86(8)0.346(10)25341

Kansas City4(10)7.17(14)0.256(12)2415-1

Cleveland3.5(11)6.67(13)0.235(13)15160

Oakland2.17(14)5.17(10)0.169(14)1506-1

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