Monday, September 28, 2009

Monday Pythagorean, 9/28/2009

Not a good week. 2-5 is never a good week. For all the talk a week ago about the Red Sox "peaking at the right time," well, they sure weren't "peaking" this week...

  • The magic number has continued to come down, and they could clinch as early as very, very early tomorrow morning, eastern time. The Rangers aren't going to win their last seven, nor are the Red Sox going to lose their last seven, so they'll be playing post-season ball, but one has to hope that they'll be playing better than they played this week.


  • Did they do a little bit of starting to rest players? Sure. If they were going all out to maximize their record, Wakefield and Byrd wouldn't both be in the rotation while Beckett, Lester and Buchholz were starting on five days rest. And I'll cut them a little bit of slack for Tuesday - Greinke is outstanding. Of course, he only went six innings, and they didn't do anything against the bullpen, either.


  • I hate to be feeling about them the way that I do right as they head into the post-season. And nothing that happens this week can change it, because a) they're playing bad teams b) at home. I have zero confidence in their ability to score runs against a good pitcher in a road game. They're averaging 5.9 runs per game at home and only 4.8 on the road. In 41% of their road games (33) they've scored three runs or fewer. In 53% of their road games (43) they've scored four runs or fewer. And the games in Baltimore are no longer relevant.


  • In their last seven games in NY, all losses, they've been shut out three times. In the other four, they've scored a total of 15 runs, fewer than four per game. They've didn't have a full lineup for any of those seven games, but it's a disturbing trend. And that's very likely where the season results are going to be determined.


  • Red Sox Player of the Week - Nothing very special going on this week. Probably the best performance was J.D. Drew who hit .429/.529/.500/1.029 while playing in five of the seven games.


  • Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - Not Manny Delcarmen. Daisuke Matsuzaka gave up one run in seven, Clay Buchholz gave up no runs in 6 2/3. In the absence of a special bullpen performance, they'll share it.









AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 9/28/2009
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

New York5.66(1)4.64(6)0.59(1)9264100568

Boston5.34(3)4.45(2)0.583(2)906591641

Los Angeles5.49(2)4.81(11)0.56(3)876891644

Texas4.97(4)4.61(4)0.534(4)837285702

Tampa Bay4.94(5)4.67(7)0.526(5)81747976-2

Minnesota4.94(6)4.69(9)0.523(6)817481740

Toronto4.83(8)4.71(10)0.511(7)80767284-8

Oakland4.78(9)4.68(8)0.51(8)80767581-5

Detroit4.61(10)4.55(3)0.506(9)787783725

Chicago4.49(12)4.62(5)0.487(10)76807581-1

Cleveland4.88(7)5.36(13)0.458(11)71846491-7

Seattle3.95(14)4.35(1)0.456(12)718580769

Baltimore4.54(11)5.45(14)0.417(13)65906095-5

Kansas City4.27(13)5.15(12)0.415(14)65916492-1




Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
New York10458

Boston9567

Los Angeles9567

Texas8973

Detroit8775




Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
New York10458

Boston9567

Los Angeles9567

Texas8973

Detroit8775




Standings for the week
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Toronto5.86(5)3.29(2)0.742(1)52611

Minnesota7.33(3)4.33(4)0.724(2)42511

Detroit6(4)4(3)0.677(3)42420

New York4.5(10)3.17(1)0.655(4)42511

Oakland7.71(1)5.71(9)0.634(5)43430

Texas7.43(2)6.43(10)0.566(6)43430

Cleveland5.17(6)5(6)0.515(7)33330

Boston5.14(7)5.43(7)0.475(8)3425-1

Los Angeles4.83(9)5.5(8)0.441(9)3324-1

Seattle3.5(13)4.5(5)0.387(10)24240

Kansas City5.14(7)7.14(12)0.354(11)25341

Chicago4.5(10)6.5(11)0.338(12)24240

Tampa Bay4.2(12)7.4(14)0.262(13)14231

Baltimore3.33(14)7.33(13)0.191(14)1506-1

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