Monday, May 18, 2009

Monday Pythagorean, 5/18/2009

Ugh. 2-4, and the lead [over the Yankees and Rays] shrinks. And the Bruins and Celtics seasons end in disappointing fashion, as the Boston sports teams have a lousy week all the way around.

  • By any standard, that was a frustrating week. The Sox lost two walkoff games, one in the 12th and one in the 9th. They lost two games in which they led 4-0. They lost two games when their defense failed to make easily makeable plays. They lost a game in which the last out was a potential turn-a-deficit-into-a-lead home run which was caught at the wall. They lost a game in which they only allowed three runs. The only reason that they didn't lose a game in which they scored a lot of runs was because, well, they didn't have a game in which they scored a lot of runs. The offense was weak, the pitching was so-so, and the results were unpleasant.


  • Oh, and they left runners scattered all over God's creation. They lost two different one-run games in Seattle in which they left nine runners on base. In Sunday's game, they had the bases loaded with no outs and didn't score. They lost a one-run game in 12 innings in which they left 17 runners on base.


  • I could be wrong, but I continue to disbelieve in the Toronto Blue Jays. At some point, they're going to have to play Boston and New York and Tampa, and I don't think that they represent a serious threat to win the division or the Wild Card. So, for the time being, I am going to continue to write as if they weren't. Obviously, if they end up winning 100 games, then I will have been wrong, and the competition I'm writing about is just for the Wild Card, not the division and the Wild Card.


  • That said, it's 6 weeks into the season, teams will be passing the quarter pole this week, and the Red Sox have had literally nothing go wrong for them, enabling them to build a little lead over the Yanks and Rays. Well, almost nothing. A couple of little things like
    • Their number one starter has a 5.85 ERA

    • Their number two starter has a 6.51 ERA

    • Their number three starter has only made two starts

    • Their leadoff hitter has a .331 OBP

    • Their number three hitter, DH, and superstar has hit .208/.318/.300/.618 with 0 home runs

    • Their cleanup hitter and MVP candidate has spent a couple of weeks on the DL

    • They've played most of the season with their third string shortstop

    Oh, and they've already traveled to the West Coast. Twice. And they've played four more games on the road than at home.

    So it's easily understandable how they'd be ahead of those other teams...


  • This seems an appropriate time to mention that I hate inter-league play.


  • Red Sox Player of the Week: J.D. Drew hit .350/.458/.700/1.158 for the week, with two of the team's six home runs.


  • Red Sox Pitcher of the Week: The bullpen continues to shine, but I don't how one would differentiate between Okajima, Bard, Papelbon, Saito and Ramirez. Beckett threw 7 innings of two run ball with 5 Ks, which was good to see, in their Friday night win, so we'll go with Josh Beckett.





AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 5/18/2009
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Toronto5.78(1)4.3(2)0.632(1)251526141

Detroit5.58(3)4.72(4)0.576(2)21152016-1

Texas5.65(2)4.84(5)0.57(3)211623142

Kansas City4.55(11)4.08(1)0.55(4)21172018-1

Boston5.47(4)5(8)0.541(5)211722161

Tampa Bay5.33(6)4.92(7)0.537(6)21181920-2

Los Angeles4.86(9)5(8)0.487(7)181818180

New York5.35(5)5.73(12)0.469(8)172020173

Minnesota4.82(10)5.26(11)0.459(9)172118201

Cleveland5.21(7)5.77(13)0.453(10)18211425-4

Oakland4.38(12)5(8)0.44(11)15191321-2

Baltimore5.05(8)5.92(14)0.428(12)162216220

Seattle3.95(13)4.63(3)0.427(13)162218202

Chicago3.94(14)4.89(6)0.403(14)152115210




Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Toronto10557

Texas10161

Boston9468

Detroit9072

New York8874




Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Toronto10359

Texas9468

Detroit9369

Boston8973

Kansas City8874




Standings for the week
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Texas5.67(5)3.17(2)0.744(1)42602

Toronto4.5(8)3(1)0.677(2)42420

Detroit8.5(1)5.83(9)0.666(3)4233-1

New York4.33(11)3.17(2)0.64(4)42511

Minnesota6(3)5.17(7)0.568(5)33330

Cleveland6(3)5.29(8)0.558(6)4334-1

Tampa Bay6.5(2)6.33(13)0.512(7)33421

Los Angeles4.5(8)5(6)0.452(8)3324-1

Baltimore5(7)5.83(9)0.43(9)33330

Boston3.83(12)4.5(4)0.427(10)3324-1

Kansas City4.5(8)6(12)0.371(11)24240

Oakland5.6(6)7.8(14)0.353(12)23230

Seattle3.17(13)4.5(4)0.345(13)24240

Chicago2.83(14)5.83(9)0.211(14)15150

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