Monday, August 25, 2008

Monday Pythagorean 8/25/2008

2 of 3 and 2 of 3 makes 4 of 6, and they were all on the road. So why does it feel like another week of treading water?

  • Partly because there was no ground made up. Through the All Star break, the Rays were only half a game behind Boston, despite having played about 4-5 games worse in terms of runs scored and allowed. But since then, Tampa's continued to overperform, while playing better baseball. The result is that Boston's gone 18-15 over the past 6 weeks, while Tampa's gone 24-11.


  • Partly because the injuries keep accumulating. No one's too concerned with Lugo, because Lowrie's been so good, but Beckett is a big concern, and at a time when Buccholz has gone back to the minors due to inflamed ineffectiveness. Drew joins Lowell on the shelf, Aardsma goes back to the DL, and suddenly, the depth is being tested. Seriously tested.


  • It's not over yet. After playing three in New York, the Red Sox head home with only two road trips, nine games total, left on the schedule. And 20 left at home. They've got three left in Tampa, and three left at home with Tampa. The Rays start a 9 game homestand tomorrow, but finish with 17 out of 24 on the road. If the lead is still 4 1/2, or smaller, when I'm writing this post next week, the race is still very much up for grabs.


  • I'm not ready to write of the Yankees. Yet. I'm confident that they aren't going to win the division, but the Wild Card is not totally out of the question. Yet. Tune in next week, and this is very likely to have changed.


  • The entire gap between Tampa and Boston, 4 1/2 games, is in their performances vs. Toronto. The Rays are 9-3 against the Blue Jays, the Sox are 4-7. Boston has allowed the Blue Jays six runs per game - against the rest of baseball, Toronto's scoring fewer than four runs per game.




AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 8/25/2008
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Boston5.15(3)4.3(5)0.582(1)76547555-1

Chicago5.17(2)4.32(6)0.582(2)75547455-1

Tampa Bay4.63(10)3.99(2)0.567(3)735679506

Toronto4.42(11)3.92(1)0.554(4)72586763-5

Minnesota5.08(5)4.55(8)0.55(5)715974563

Los Angeles4.65(9)4.24(4)0.542(6)705979509

New York4.86(7)4.5(7)0.535(7)706070600

Cleveland4.83(8)4.64(9)0.518(8)67626267-5

Detroit5.04(6)4.95(10)0.508(9)66646466-2

Baltimore5.11(4)5.15(13)0.497(10)64656168-3

Oakland3.92(14)4.08(3)0.482(11)63675971-4

Texas5.56(1)6.08(14)0.46(12)607163683

Seattle4.15(12)5.07(12)0.41(13)53774882-5

Kansas City4.09(13)5.05(11)0.405(14)537756743




Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Tampa Bay9963

Los Angeles9963

Boston9369

Chicago9369

Minnesota9270




Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Tampa Bay9864

Los Angeles9765

Boston9468

Chicago9369

Minnesota9270




Standings for the week
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Minnesota5.29(7)2.71(1)0.772(1)5243-1

Cleveland7.67(1)4.5(4)0.726(2)42602

Chicago7.67(1)4.5(4)0.726(2)42420

Toronto6.17(3)3.83(2)0.705(4)4233-1

Tampa Bay5.5(5)4(3)0.642(5)42420

Detroit5.17(8)4.83(7)0.53(6)33421

New York5.17(8)5.17(9)0.5(7)33421

Boston5.5(5)6(10)0.46(8)33421

Texas5.67(4)6.5(12)0.438(9)3315-2

Baltimore5(10)6.83(13)0.361(10)2415-1

Los Angeles3.43(12)4.71(6)0.358(11)34340

Oakland3.14(14)4.86(8)0.311(12)25341

Kansas City3.67(11)6.33(11)0.269(13)2415-1

Seattle3.43(12)7(14)0.213(14)16251

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