LyfLines: 2008 Red Sox preview

Opening day is usually an afternoon game. Sometimes, it's a Sunday night. But this is the first time that the Red Sox are ever going to open on a Tuesday morning at 6:00 AM. 7:00 PM local (Tokyo) time, of course.

I've not had much to say about the Sox during this spring. Partly that's been because there really hasn't been a lot going on. And partly because of sports fan psychological damage incurred during the Super Bowl. But, with the season about to start, I need to say something. So, here it is, my opening day preview.

Last year, the Boston Red Sox were both a) the best team in baseball and b) the World Series Champions. (Those don't actually go together all that often.) Can they repeat either of those?

Last year:

The 2007 Red Sox underperformed their Pythagorean projection winning percentage. As they allowed only 657 runs while scoring 867, the could have been expected to win 101 games. Instead, they won 96, finishing the season tied for the best record in baseball with the Cleveland Indians. During the offseason, they have had very little roster turnover, heading into 2008 with the core of the 2007 team intact.

Offense:

Last year, the Red Sox were a very good, but not great, offensive team.

2007 Boston Red Sox
	Team	AL Rank
Batting average	0.279	5th
OBP	0.362	2nd
SLG	0.444	3rd
Runs per Game	5.35	3rd

They got a fantastic year from Mike Lowell, and should have no expectations of a repeat. They got a very poor season from J.D. Drew, which also shouldn't repeat.

2007 Boston Red Sox
Player	Games	GS	AB	Runs	Hits	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	HBP	K	SB	CS	BA	OBA	SPct	OPS
>400 AB
David Ortiz	149	147	549	116	182	52	1	35	117	111	4	103	3	1	0.332	0.445	0.621	1.066
Manny Ramirez	133	131	483	84	143	33	1	20	88	71	7	92	0	0	0.296	0.388	0.493	0.881
Mike Lowell	154	150	589	79	191	37	2	21	120	53	3	71	3	2	0.324	0.378	0.501	0.879
Kevin Youkilis	145	136	528	85	152	35	2	16	83	77	15	105	4	2	0.288	0.39	0.453	0.843
Dustin Pedroia	139	132	520	86	165	39	1	8	50	47	7	42	7	1	0.317	0.38	0.442	0.822
J.D. Drew	140	126	466	84	126	30	4	11	64	79	1	100	4	2	0.27	0.373	0.423	0.796
Jason Varitek	131	121	435	57	111	15	3	17	68	71	8	122	1	2	0.255	0.367	0.421	0.788
Coco Crisp	145	137	526	85	141	28	7	6	60	50	1	84	28	6	0.268	0.33	0.382	0.712
Julio Lugo	147	140	570	71	135	36	2	8	73	48	0	82	33	6	0.237	0.294	0.349	0.643
100-400 AB
Jacoby Ellsbury	33	28	116	20	41	7	1	3	18	8	1	15	9	0	0.353	0.394	0.509	0.903
Eric Hinske	84	49	186	25	38	12	3	6	21	28	3	54	3	0	0.204	0.317	0.398	0.715
Alex Cora	83	52	207	30	51	10	5	3	18	7	9	23	1	1	0.246	0.298	0.386	0.684
Wily Mo Pena	73	40	156	18	34	9	1	5	17	14	2	58	0	1	0.218	0.291	0.385	0.676
Doug Mirabelli	48	33	114	9	23	3	0	5	16	11	1	41	0	0	0.202	0.278	0.36	0.638
0-100 AB
David Murphy	3	0	2	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.5	0.5	1.5	2
Brandon Moss	15	5	25	6	7	2	1	0	1	4	0	6	0	0	0.28	0.379	0.44	0.819
Bobby Kielty	20	11	52	6	12	2	0	1	9	5	1	17	0	0	0.231	0.295	0.327	0.622
Jeff Bailey	3	2	9	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	0.111	0.111	0.444	0.555
Kevin Cash	12	8	27	2	3	1	0	0	4	4	1	13	0	0	0.111	0.242	0.148	0.39
Royce Clayton	8	1	6	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
Pitchers
Josh Beckett	30	11	11	1	2	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0.182	0.182	0.273	0.455
Julian Tavarez	34	7	4	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	0.25	0.4	0.25	0.65
Daisuke Matsuzaka	32	10	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Curt Schilling	24	8	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.5	0.5	0.5	1
Tim Wakefield	31	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0

Gone:
- Eric Hinske
- Wily Mo Pena
- Doug Mirabelli
- David Murphy
- Royce Clayton

Here:
- Sean Casey

As I said, there's been very little turnover on the roster. Casey replaces Hinske as the backup 1st basement, Kielty stays as a backup outfielder. Kevin Cash replaces Doug Mirabelli as backup catcher/Wakefield caddy. Any variation on the 867 runs scored will be the result of performance differences in the players who are here, as opposed to player replacement. The only likely exception to that is Center Field, where most people expect Jacoby Ellsbury to get the bulk of the playing time, and Coco Crisp to get traded.

Outlook:

Drop-offs should be expected at 3rd base and catcher, as Cash is even worse than Mirabelli and Varitek's another year older. Improvements should be expected in Center and Right, as Crisp and Drew had down years. It would not be surprising to see Manny have a "comeback" season of sorts. On the whole, I think that they'll score somewhere between 875-900 runs, somewhat, but not tremendously, better than 2007.

Pitching:

The 2007 Red Sox were the best pitching/defense team in the AL. Their 657 runs allowed were 42 runs fewer than second place Detroit.

2007 Boston Red Sox
	Red Sox	AL Rank
Runs allowed	657	1st
Runs per game allowed	4.06	1st
Walks/Inning	0.335	5th
Strikeouts/Inning	0.799	3rd

2007 Boston Red Sox
Player	Games	GS	W	L	WPct	Sv	Sho	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	K9	BB9	HR9
Starters
Josh Beckett	30	30	20	7	0.741	0	0	200.67	189	76	73	17	40	194	3.27	8.7	1.79	0.76
Curt Schilling	24	24	9	8	0.529	0	1	151	165	68	65	21	23	101	3.87	6.02	1.37	1.25
Daisuke Matsuzaka	32	32	15	12	0.556	0	0	204.67	191	100	100	25	80	201	4.4	8.84	3.52	1.1
Jonathan Lester	12	11	4	0	1	0	0	63	61	33	32	10	31	50	4.57	7.14	4.43	1.43
Tim Wakefield	31	31	17	12	0.586	0	0	189	191	104	100	22	64	110	4.76	5.24	3.05	1.05
Julian Tavarez	34	23	7	11	0.389	0	0	134.67	151	89	77	14	51	77	5.15	5.15	3.41	0.94
Kason Gabbard	7	7	4	0	1	0	1	41	28	17	17	3	18	29	3.73	6.37	3.95	0.66
Clay Buchholz	4	3	3	1	0.75	0	1	22.67	14	6	4	0	10	22	1.59	8.74	3.97	0
Devern Hansack	3	1	0	1	0	0	0	7.67	9	5	4	2	5	5	4.7	5.87	5.87	2.35
Relievers
Jonathan Papelbon	59	0	1	3	0.25	37	0	58.33	30	12	12	5	15	84	1.85	12.96	2.31	0.77
Bryan Corey	9	0	1	0	1	0	0	9.33	6	2	2	0	4	6	1.93	5.79	3.86	0
Manuel Delcarmen	44	0	0	0	-	1	0	44	28	11	10	4	17	41	2.05	8.39	3.48	0.82
Hideki Okajima	66	0	3	2	0.6	5	0	69	50	17	17	6	17	63	2.22	8.22	2.22	0.78
Brendan Donnelly	27	0	2	1	0.667	0	0	20.67	19	8	7	0	5	15	3.05	6.53	2.18	0
Javier Lopez	61	0	2	1	0.667	0	0	40.67	36	16	14	2	18	26	3.1	5.75	3.98	0.44
J.C. Romero	23	0	1	0	1	1	0	20	24	7	7	2	15	11	3.15	4.95	6.75	0.9
Mike Timlin	50	0	2	1	0.667	1	0	55.33	46	23	21	7	14	31	3.42	5.04	2.28	1.14
Kyle Snyder	46	0	2	3	0.4	0	0	54.33	45	29	23	7	32	41	3.81	6.79	5.3	1.16
Joel Pineiro	31	0	1	1	0.5	0	0	34	41	20	19	3	14	20	5.03	5.29	3.71	0.79
Eric Gagne	20	0	2	2	0.5	0	0	18.67	26	14	14	1	9	22	6.75	10.61	4.34	0.48

Gone:
- Kason Gabbard
- Brendan Donnelly
- J.C. Romero
- Joel Pineiro
- Eric Gagne

Here:
- David Aardsma

A brief glance shows that they aren't going to miss any of the relievers they've "lost." Gabbard gave them several effective starts, and they could need those at some point. But they've got appropriate depth to deal with a couple of minor pitching injuries/dl stints. We could see Hansack, Tavarez, Justin Masterson or Michael Bowden all make starts this year. Schilling is iffy, at best, but Lester's a year removed from chemotherapy and poised to become a full-time effective starter. Matsuzaka, who pitched very well at times but wore down as the year went, had had a year to become accustomed to the culture and game, and should be better. Buchholz is clearly ready to pitch in the Major Leagues, although there clearly is going to be an innings limit for him, and if he were to make 30 starts, he'd probably exceed it.

The big question mark right now is how do they replace the 151 innings that Schilling game them, very good innings. Some of those will go to Lester, some will go to Buchholz, and some will go to Tavarez and the other 5th starters. The bullpen has got a great closer and 2-3 plus relievers. And a manager who's done a good job running a pitching staff. The 657 runs allowed last year was outstanding, but this staff looks just as good as, if slightly more uncertain than, that one. Let's peg the project runs allowed at 660-690.

Outlook:

If I'm right about the runs scored and allowed, then we're looking at a team that's somewhere between .607-.638 Pythagorean. That translates to 98-103 wins.

Are there things that could go wrong? Absolutely.

- Beckett gets hurt
- Lowell crashes
- Manny continues to decline
- Ortiz drops off
- Lester and Buchholz aren't ready

That said, this is a very good team again. I feel very comfortable predicting that they win 96-100 again. They are probably the favorites to win the AL East, but the Yankees are excellent still/again, and the 2nd place team in the East is going to win the Wild Card.

So, my official AL East prediction: