Tuesday, November 20, 2007

NFL week 11 wrapup

Week 11 in the NFL...

  • There's been a lot of discussion about whether referee Pete Morelli handled the field goal attempt in Baltimore properly. There is, that I'm aware of, no evidence that he went to the replay. There are two comments to make.

    1) They got the call right.

    2) It should not have taken 4 minutes to do it. It was obviously good. The official who ruled it not good was wrong, and should have been in position to know that.

  • I don't know whether it was QB Kellen Clemens' fault, or head coach Eric Mangini's, but the Jets helped cost themselves the opportunity to win the game in regulation by spiking the ball at the 5 yard line with 37 seconds left. Instead of three chances to the throw the ball into the end zone, they only got two, and ended up kicking a game-tying field goal with 26 seconds. There was no need to spike the ball at that point. They couldn't get another first down, they weren't going to run the ball because they were out of timeouts. All that spike did was waste a down and leave the Steelers with time after the tying score. They ended up winning in overtime, but that was a bad play.

  • Is Peyton Manning a product of his receivers? Coming out of the bye, without Marvin Harrison, the Colts have played 5 games. Manning's 103 for 182 with 6 TD and 9 INT, for a rating of 67.78.

  • I've seen criticism of John Kitna and Mike Martz for throwing to the wrong receiver on the last INT that sealed the Giants win. The receiver was open - Kitna underthrew him. If Kitna throws the ball two feet further, the Lions win.

  • I asked, yesterday, "what kind of a spread would be required to get you to bet on the Eagles next Sunday night?" Well, we know what Vegas thinks. The game opened at 22. We're approaching "Maintain Dignity Against Nebraska" territory (and yes, barring something catastrophic, I will use that again, with explanation, before this season ends...) I don't know what the record is, but it's not inconceivable that the Jets and/or Dolphins game could approach 30.

  • Evidence that you should be listening carefully to what I say:

    Arizona at Cincinnati - "I don't have great confidence in Arizona to travel well, but I have great confidence that the Bengals defense stinks, and they shouldn't be favored over anyone who's offense is better than Baltimore's and San Francisco's. Which means pretty much everyone else."

    San Diego at Jacksonville - "There's just no way, right now, that you can pick a team with Norv Turner calling the shots and Philip Rivers calling the shots unless the spread is just enormous. This one isn't. Jacksonville covers."

    Carolina at Green Bay - "It would not totally shock me if the Panthers came out and played the kind of game that makes people think that they're a good team and John Fox is a good coach. But I won't bet on it. Given what the Panthers are likely to do offensively, I feel comfortable in saying that Green Bay wins by two touchdowns or more."

  • Evidence that you should be listening carefully to what I say (and betting the opposite):

    Pittsburgh at NY Jets - "The Jets are bad. The Steelers are good. Is there really any more commentary warranted in this case?"

    NY Giants at Detroit - "these teams are both 6-3, and while neither of them has really beaten a good team yet, the Lions are undefeated at home, and I don't know why this wouldn't be considered a pick 'em game on a neutral field, and the Lions favored at home. I think that Detroit wins this game fairly easily."

  • For the week:
    Winners: 12-4
    ATS: 9-6-1

  • For the season:
    Winners: 104-56
    ATS: 83-67-10

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