Monday, September 18, 2006

Monday Pythagorean - 9/18/2006

So it's come to this - Boston goes into Yankee Stadium in mid-September, splits one double-header, sweeps another, and no one cares. It doesn't matter - it's irrelevant. Why? Because the Red Sox "played" themselves entirely out of contention - and relevance - in August.

They did that by having some of their pitchers and several position players hurt. Now, some are back, but the starting pitching is still a mess. With a capital 'M'. The Red Sox starters for this should-have-been-vital-but-wasn't four games series were Josh Beckett (which one could have hoped for at the start of the season) and then Julian Tavarez, Kyle Snyder and Kevin Jarvis (which one would never in his worst nightmares have imagined at the start of the season.)

The only items of interest right now relate to 2007. Are Dustin Pedroia and David Murphy ready? It's impossible to say, but they each had a nice weekend in New York. Is Papelbon going back to the starting rotation? Indications are that he is. How well will that work? Who will close? Can they finally get a bullpen right next year? Will Coco Crisp be back? Mark Loretta? Alex Gonzalez? One of those last two, I'd guess, but not both. Is Mike Timlin done? Will Trot Nixon come back? Will they try to move Manny again? Can they find a back-up catcher? One who can play when Varitek goes down, as becomes increasingly likely at his age? Is this another lost year in the development of Wily Mo Pena, or can he continue to progress?

There are a lot of questions facing this team. There were things they did last off-season that I didn't like, and they didn't work out. There were things they did last off-season that I did like, and most of them didn't work out, either. This team had some design problems, but an enormous amount of really bad luck to go with it.





AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 9/18/2006
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Detroit4.95(8)4.05(1)0.591(1)886189601

New York5.72(1)4.72(6)0.587(2)876290593

Minnesota4.97(6)4.27(2)0.569(3)856488613

Chicago5.46(2)4.79(8)0.56(4)836684651

Cleveland5.35(3)4.93(10)0.538(5)80686979-11

Oakland4.72(10)4.39(3)0.533(6)796986627

Texas5.16(4)4.8(9)0.533(7)80707674-4

Toronto4.97(7)4.66(5)0.529(8)797079700

Los Angeles4.67(12)4.61(4)0.505(9)767480704

Boston5.15(5)5.11(11)0.504(10)767481695

Seattle4.54(13)4.75(7)0.479(11)717871780

Baltimore4.79(9)5.58(13)0.431(12)648564850

Tampa Bay4.28(14)5.35(12)0.4(13)60895792-3

Kansas City4.71(11)5.95(14)0.395(14)59915892-1




Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
New York9864

Detroit9765

Minnesota9666

Oakland9468

Chicago9171




Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
New York9864

Detroit9765

Minnesota9567

Oakland9369

Chicago9171




Standings for the week
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Minnesota6.38(2)2.75(3)0.823(1)7162-1

Toronto5.29(6)2.57(1)0.789(2)6152-1

Texas5.57(5)2.71(2)0.789(3)6143-2

New York6.78(1)4.78(7)0.655(4)63630

Boston5.25(7)4.13(5)0.609(5)53621

Oakland5(9)4.71(6)0.527(6)43521

Chicago3.86(11)3.86(4)0.5(7)4325-2

Kansas City6.29(3)6.71(12)0.47(8)34431

Detroit5.67(4)6.5(10)0.438(9)33330

Seattle5.13(8)6.5(10)0.393(10)35350

Baltimore4.75(10)7.13(13)0.323(11)3526-1

Cleveland3(13)5.14(9)0.272(12)25250

Los Angeles2.63(14)5(8)0.235(13)26442

Tampa Bay3.86(11)7.43(14)0.232(14)2507-2

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