Monday, September 11, 2006

Monday Pythagorean - 9/11

NOTE: It appears that CNN/SI has failed to update properly each of the last couple of Mondays, so the weekly standings are apparently, at least in some cases, Sunday-Saturday. It makes no difference, but there it is.


For the first time since the debacle that was 2001, the Boston Red Sox are playing an irrelevant September. And they're playing it as if they understand that it's irrelevant. I don't actually have much of a complaint about the pitching - the fact is, they've got no pitchers left. They have one (1) of their starting pitchers left. Clement's hurt. Wakefield's hurt. Wells has been traded. Schilling's hurt. The only starter left is Beckett, who's not pitched well, though he's been better recently.

But the offense has done very little in the last two months. They're averaging 4.18 runs/game in the 39 games since July ended. To put that in perspective, the worst offensive team in the AL for the season this year has been Tampa Bay. They've averaged 4.3 runs/game this year. Some of that is, of course, the injuries, as Varitek, Nixon, Ramirez and Ortiz all missed significant time. But no one picked up the slack, either. Loretta and Lowell have been fine, but if they're your two best hitters, you're in deep trouble. Youkilis had a bad stretch. Crisp was awful, the catchers worse. Ugly. Ugly. Ugly.





AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 9/11/2006
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Detroit4.92(7)3.94(1)0.599(1)865786570

New York5.65(1)4.71(6)0.582(2)815984563

Chicago5.54(2)4.84(8)0.562(3)806282602

Minnesota4.89(8)4.35(2)0.553(4)786382594

Cleveland5.47(3)4.91(10)0.549(5)77646774-10

Oakland4.7(11)4.37(3)0.534(6)756681606

Texas5.14(5)4.9(9)0.522(7)75687271-3

Los Angeles4.78(10)4.59(4)0.519(8)746876662

Toronto4.95(6)4.76(7)0.518(9)746874680

Boston5.15(4)5.16(11)0.499(10)717175674

Seattle4.5(13)4.65(5)0.485(11)687368730

Baltimore4.79(9)5.49(13)0.438(12)627962790

Tampa Bay4.3(14)5.25(12)0.41(13)58845785-1

Kansas City4.63(12)5.91(14)0.39(14)56875489-2




Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Detroit9765

New York9765

Chicago9468

Minnesota9468

Oakland9369




Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Detroit9765

New York9765

Minnesota9468

Chicago9369

Oakland9270




Standings for the week
ProjectedActual

R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck

Los Angeles3.5(11)1.67(1)0.795(1)51510

New York6.17(3)4.17(6)0.672(2)42420

Cleveland5.29(4)4.57(8)0.566(3)4325-2

Seattle4.5(6)4(4)0.554(4)33421

Kansas City6.67(1)6(13)0.548(5)33421

Oakland6.33(2)5.83(12)0.538(6)33330

Texas4.67(5)4.33(7)0.534(7)33330

Detroit3.86(9)3.71(3)0.517(8)4325-2

Toronto3(13)3(2)0.5(9)33421

Minnesota3.71(10)4(4)0.466(10)34431

Chicago4.43(8)5(9)0.445(11)34340

Tampa Bay4.5(6)5.33(11)0.423(12)33330

Baltimore3(13)5.17(10)0.27(13)2415-1

Boston3.17(12)6(13)0.237(14)15241

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