Who's whose daddy now?

"I just tip my hat and call the Yankees my daddy."
- Pedro Martinez, 9/24/04


I wrote about a memorable Good Friday game in 1998 the other day, and now I want to mention another one, 3 years later. It was April 13, 2001, and Manny Ramirez' single in the 10th inning marked the first time that the Red Sox had beaten Mariano Rivera. Before than, when Rivera came into a game with the lead, the game ended with a Yankee win. If he came into a tie game, it ended with a Yankee win. The Red Sox did not beat him. Ever. Until Good Friday, 2001. Manny beat him for a home run to tie a game in New York later that summer, though the Yankees won in the bottom of the 9th. Shea Hillenbrand took him deep in a memorable early-season game in 2002 for a win. So the spell was broken, but most of the time, when he came in, the Yankees won.

But something changed last year. On July 23, the Red Sox dropped an 8-7 game at home to New York, falling to 52-44, 9 1/2 games behind the Yankees in the East, with the 5th best record in the AL. On the 24th, the Yankees took an early lead, then, after the Red Sox fought back (literally, with Alex Rodriguez and Jason Varitek brawling after Rodriguez was hit by a Bronson Arroyo pitch), took a big lead with 6 in the 6th. Rivera took the mound with a 10-8 lead, then gave up a run-scoring single to Kevin Millar and a 2-run, game-winning, walk-off home run to Bill Mueller. Millar and Mueller, who would combine to provide the baserunner and the RBI that tied game 4 of the ALCS.

From the July 23rd loss to the end of the season, the Red Sox were 46-20, the best record in all of baseball. It started with the brawl game on the 24th.

Yesterday's meltdown was certainly helped by the Rodriguez error at third. But the bases were loaded with hits and walks. He walked 3 of the 9 men that he faced. Yes, not everything was hard hit. But that was not a good performance.



There are people fretting (if they're Yankee fans) or exulting (if they're not) that Rivera's done. But there's no evidence of it. What does seem to be the case is that the Red Sox have figured out how to beat him. Much like the Yankees figured out how to beat Pedro. (Basically, get great pitching, and beat the bullpen after he's gone.) His numbers against Boston in the last year look dramatically different than his numbers against everyone else. ("Clean" is the percentage of appearances in which he allows no hits, walks or runs.)

Mariano Rivera - 2004-2005 (including post-season)

	IP	R	ER	ERA	RA/9	WHIP	G	Sv	Blown	BB/IP	K/IP	H/IP	HR	"Clean"
vs. Boston	19.33	12	8	3.72	5.59	1.66	15	5	6	0.57	0.93	1.09	2	20%
vs Everyone else	73.67	12	12	1.47	1.47	0.96	69	50	3	0.19	0.8	0.77	2	39%

Counting the post-season, Rivera has now blown 6 of his last 9 save chances against the Red Sox. That doesn't mean that they'll beat him 6 of the next 9. That's very unlikely.

But it does mean that the Yankees need a new recipe. For years, they were playing a 7-inning game. Get the lead through 7, and they'd work the bullpen through the 8th and hand a lead to Rivera. And he'd hold it. That's not good enough against Boston anymore.