Red Sox/Yankee starting pitching

Updated 2:07, 3/31 - Sox 3-year table was wrong.


One of the baseball storylines of the past off-season is the comparison of the changes in the Red Sox' and Yankees' starting pitching staffs. If I had a nickel for every time I've heard some mediot question how the Red Sox would overcome the "loss of Martinez and Lowe" my Visa bill wouldn't be quite so scary. Does no one who draws a paycheck from a media company recognize how dreadful Derek Lowe was last year? And Pedro, while very good, was not super-human as he had been for the previous decade. While replacing 2004 Martinez does require some effort, replacing the combined efforts of Martinez AND Lowe isn't a particularly daunting task for a team with Boston's checkbook.

As to the Yankees, clearly Randy Johnson is a difference maker, and his presence alone improves their club. Particularly when they get to the post-season. But as good as Pavano and Wright were last year (and they were both excellent), I don't trust either one of them to come close to repeating what look like career years.

In any event, this is what the staffs look like last year, as well as this year's staff's 2004 performance.

Red Sox 2004 Starters

Pitcher	W	L	GS	IP	ERA	ERA+
Kim, Byung-Hyun	2	1	3	17.33	6.23	78.12
Lowe, Derek	14	12	33	182.67	5.42	89.7
Martinez, Pedro	16	9	33	217	3.9	125.1
Arroyo, Bronson	10	9	29	178.67	4.03	120.96
Schilling, Curt	21	6	32	226.67	3.26	150.04
Wakefield, Tim	12	10	30	188.33	4.87	99.84
2004 Staff totals	75	47	160	1010.67	4.27	114.01

Red Sox 2005 Starters

Pitcher	W	L	GS	IP	ERA	ERA+
Arroyo, Bronson	10	9	29	178.67	4.03	120.96
Schilling, Curt	21	6	32	226.67	3.26	150.04
Wakefield, Tim	12	10	30	188.33	4.87	99.84
Clement, Matt	9	13	30	181	3.68	123.25
Miller, Wade	7	7	15	88.67	3.35	128.91
Wells, David	12	8	31	195.67	3.73	107.81
2005 Staff totals	71	53	167	1059	3.84	120.07

So for all the talk about how hard it'll be to replace Martinez and Lowe, the starters on the 2005 Red Sox were better last year than the starters on the 2004 Red Sox.

Yankees 2004 Starters

Pitcher	W	L	GS	IP	ERA	ERA+
Vazquez, Javier	14	10	32	198	4.91	91.57
Lieber, Jon	14	8	27	176.67	4.33	103.93
Contreras, Jose	8	5	18	95.67	5.64	79.6
Hernandez, Orlando	8	2	15	84.67	3.3	136.66
Halsey, Brad	1	3	7	32	6.47	69.49
Loaiza, Esteban	1	2	6	42.33	8.5	52.8
Mussina, Mike	12	9	27	164.67	4.59	97.98
Brown, Kevin	10	6	22	132	4.09	110.03
2004 Staff totals	68	45	154	926	4.77	94.25

Yankees 2005 Starters

Pitcher	W	L	GS	IP	ERA	ERA+
Mussina, Mike	12	9	27	164.67	4.59	97.98
Brown, Kevin	10	6	22	132	4.09	110.03
Johnson, Randy	16	14	35	245.67	2.6	171.56
Wright, Jaret	15	8	32	186.33	3.28	131.61
Pavano, Carl	18	8	31	222.33	3	137.23
2005 Staff totals	71	45	147	951	3.38	129.18

And the Yankees clearly improved. Significantly.


The Yankees 2005 staff had a better 2004 than the Red Sox 2005 staff did. But, as previously noted, I think that the Yankees just paid big money to two guys coming off of serious fluke career years. Let's look at the last 3 years, and see what the staffs look like when you do that.

3-year totals - 2005 Red Sox Starters

	W	L	GS	IP	ERA	ERA+
Arroyo, Bronson	12	10	33	223	3.87	123.76
Clement, Matt	35	36	94	587.67	3.8	112.21
Miller, Wade	36	24	74	440.67	3.66	118.92
Schilling, Curt	52	22	91	654	3.17	146.79
Wakefield, Tim	34	22	78	554	3.98	117.69
Wells, David	46	22	92	615	3.88	110.16
Totals	215	136	462	3074.33	3.7	120.97

3-year totals - 2005 Yankee starters

	W	L	GS	IP	ERA	ERA+
Brown, Kevin	27	19	64	406.67	3.32	125.08
Johnson, Randy	46	27	88	619.67	2.79	160.84
Mussina, Mike	47	27	91	595	3.96	111.6
Pavano, Carl	36	31	85	559.33	3.99	102.07
Wright, Jaret	19	16	38	261	5.03	84.6
Totals	175	120	366	2441.67	3.68	116.78

Over the last three years, the Red Sox pitchers have performed better than the Yankee pitchers. I don't see any reason to think that the Yankees have any edge, never mind a big one, when it comes to the relative starting rotations.