Monday, April 28, 2014

Monday pythagorean - 4/12/2014

Another downer of a week, with a couple of good games sandwiched between extremely bad ones, a 3-4 record, and more missed opportunities to beat their division competition and get back to .500...
  • Division competition? 0-1 vs. Baltimore, 1-2 vs. New York. Yeah, 2-1 vs. Toronto, but if they end up anywhere near Toronto in the standings when it's all said and done, it will have been a serious disappointment of a season.


  • On April 2, the 0-1 Red Sox beat Baltimore 6-2 to move to .500. On April 5, they lost to Milwaukee to fall below .500 at 2-3. Since then, they have had six opportunities to get back to .500 (two of them this week alone). They are 0-6, and have been outscored 39-19.
    • April 6, 2-3 - Milwaukee 4, Boston 0
    • April 8, 3-4 - Texas 10, Boston 7
    • April 10, 4-5 - NY Yankees 4, Boston 1
    • April 12, 5-6 - NY Yankees 7, Boston 4
    • April 21, 9-10 - Baltimore 7, Boston 6
    • April 27, 12-13 - Toronto 7, Boston 1


  • They did win the first game in Toronto, only the second time this season that they've won the opening game of a series. After winning the second, the had an opportunity, for the first time this year, to sweep a team. Toronto 7, Boston 1.


  • I still think that it's possible that we'll look back at Thursday's 14-5 drubbing at the hands of the Yankees, with five errors, five unearned runs and a one-inning five-walk mop-up performance from utility OF/1B Mike Carp, as the low point of the season, the bottoming out point. That possibility seemed stronger before losing 7-1 in Toronto on Sunday afternoon.


  • Clay Buchholz had an interesting week. Of the first seven hitters he faced, he allowed no hits, one walk and no runs over 2 innings. Of the last 25, he allowed 3 hits (2 1B, 1 2B), 2 walks and no runs over 6 2/3 innings. But in between those two stretches, he faced 13 batters, giving up 10 hits (9 1B and a 2B), one walk, and nine runs over 2/3 of an inning.


  • Will Middlebrooks is certainly going to hit for more power than Brock Holt. He has not yet convinced me that he's going to demonstrate enough plate discipline to be a better all-around offensive performer.


  • Putting Middlebrooks and Pierzynski back-to-back in the lineup seems to just be offering up a quick easy inning to the opposing pitcher, their back-to-back home runs on Saturday notwithstanding.


  • Nice to see Shane Victorino back. It'll be even better when he get enough at-bats to become effective at the plate again.


  • It seems as though a Sizemore-Bradley-Victorino outfield is going to catch a lot of balls that a Gomes-Sizemore-Nava outfield would see drop.


  • So, one night after the Red Sox get burned by the utterly idiotic interpretation of the "transfer" rule, when Dustin Pedroia dropped an attempted double-play out of his throwing hand, thus losing the out that should already have been recorded at 2nd, Major League Baseball has become convinced of the idiocy, and reverted to the previous interpretation. Better late than never. (And while the Red Sox got hurt by it against the Yankees, they had benefited from it against the Orioles in a game they ended up winning.)


  • In seven games this week, the Red Sox committed 8 errors that led to 11 unearned runs. Their ERA for the week was 4.93 - their RA/9 was 6.53.


  • Red Sox Player of the Week - Continued decent-to-good performances from Dustin Pedroia (.310/.412/.414/.826, 4.61 runs created, 5.24 RC/25 outs) and A.J. Pierzynski (.333/.381/.611/.992, 4.24 runs created, 8.16 RC/25 outs) and David Ortiz (.250/.480/.625/1.105, 5.35 runs created, 10.29 RC/25 outs) helped raise the offense performance this week, but the player of the week is Mike Napoli (.375/.444/.750/1.194, 6.76 runs created, 10.56 RC/25 outs), who looks even better this year than he did last.


  • Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - I want to start by praising Jake Peavy, whose 7 IP, one run start on Friday got them off to a great start in the Toronto series. But the pitcher of the week this week was John Lackey, who threw 8 innings of one-run ball against the Yankees, allowing no walks and striking out 11.


AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 4/28/2014
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Oakland4.92(4)3.4(1)0.663(1)1781510-2
LA Angels5.42(3)4.21(4)0.613(2)1591113-4
Kansas City3.79(13)3.63(2)0.521(3)121212120
Detroit4.52(5)4.33(5)0.52(4)11101291
Minnesota5.52(1)5.3(14)0.518(5)121112110
Chicago Sox5.5(2)5.31(15)0.516(6)131313130
Texas4.4(8)4.4(6)0.5(7)131215102
Toronto4.52(6)4.56(9)0.496(8)121312130
Tampa Bay4.2(10)4.4(6)0.479(9)12131114-1
Baltimore4.5(7)4.75(12)0.475(10)111312121
NY Yankees4.28(9)4.6(10)0.467(11)121315103
Seattle3.79(13)4.13(3)0.462(12)11131014-1
Boston4.04(11)4.62(11)0.439(13)111512141
Cleveland3.92(12)4.52(8)0.435(14)111411140
Houston3.27(15)5.04(13)0.312(15)8189171


Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Oakland9765
Texas9765
NY Yankees9765
Detroit9369
Minnesota8577


Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Oakland10656
LA Angels9666
Detroit8577
Kansas City8478
Minnesota8478


Standings for the week
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
LA Angels5.5(3)2.83(1)0.771(1)5133-2
Kansas City4.43(13)3.14(2)0.652(2)5234-2
Texas4.67(12)3.67(3)0.609(3)42420
Oakland5.14(8)4.29(5)0.583(4)4325-2
Chicago Sox5.29(6)4.57(6)0.566(5)43430
Detroit5.5(3)5(7)0.543(6)33330
NY Yankees5.33(5)5.17(8)0.515(7)33421
Minnesota5.8(2)6.2(13)0.47(8)23321
Toronto5.83(1)6.67(15)0.439(9)3324-1
Houston4.71(11)5.43(10)0.436(10)34431
Baltimore5.29(6)6.14(12)0.432(11)34431
Tampa Bay5(9)6(11)0.417(12)3324-1
Boston5(9)6.43(14)0.387(13)34340
Seattle4(14)5.17(8)0.385(14)24331
Cleveland3(15)4.14(4)0.356(15)25341

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