Monday, September 30, 2013

Monday pythagorean, 9/30/2013

Ok, they only went 2-3. But in the games that had any meaning whatsoever, they went 2-1 and clinched the best record in the AL. So, not that bad...

  • When the week started, the only questions were whether or not the Red Sox would maintain their hold on the AL's best record, and who they'd play in the post-season. The wins on Wednesday and Friday pretty much settled the first (they officially clinched with Oakland's loss in Seattle on Saturday) and the second won't be known until Wednesday night.


  • Embarassing finishes: Minnesota lost four to Oakland, two of three to Detroit, and four to Cleveland to finish out the year. Houston finished on a fifteen game losing streak, including four to Cleveland and three to Texas. For the scoreboard watchers among us, it wasn't a good month to see our competition facing the Twins or Astros.


  • Congratulations to Terry Francona and his Indians for a great month of September. They spent the month playing the Little Sisters of the Poor and the Helen Keller School for the Blind, but they took advantage of their schedule and made the playoffs. In the last two and a half weeks, their last 17 games, they were 4-0 vs. the 96-loss Twins, 6-0 vs. the 99-loss Chicago White Sox and 4-0 vs. the 111-loss Houston Astros. Oh, and 1-2 vs. the Kansas City Royals, who apparently put Major Leaguers on the field.


  • I don't want to belittle the Indians' accomplishment too much - I certainly didn't expect them to make the playoff this year. But the three worst teams in the AL headed into September were the Twins, White Sox and Astros, and they were much worse in September. They were a combined 24-61 after August 31, and the Indians faced them in 14 of their final 17 games.


  • No team in the AL East lost 90 games, Toronto finishing last with 88 losses. Two teams in the Central lost 95+, and two in the West lost 91 and 111. Tampa's 91-71 is more impressive than Texas' identical record, and more impressive than Cleveland's 92-70.


  • My concerns about Mr. Middlebrooks (.174/.174/.478/.652, 1.35 runs created, 1.61 RC/25 outs) have not been alleviated, after another dreadful week. Yes, he hit the two home runs in Colorado, and they certainly helped. Other than those two swings, he was 1-21, and walkless. You've got to be hitting a LOT more home runs than that to be valuable with a sub-.200 OBP. He now looks, again, exactly like the player who lost his job to Jose Iglesias early in the summer. A .227/.271/.425/.696, 36.49 runs created, 3.18 RC/25 outs season is pretty much not getting it done.


  • Consistency:
    David Ortiz 2012 (.311/.397/.564/.961)
    David Ortiz 2013 (.309/.395/.564/.959)


  • I expect to have some play-off stuff later in the week. For now, let's just say that this was as satisfying and enjoyable a regular season as we've had from this team in years...


  • Red Sox Player of the Week - With no dominant performances, this seems a good week to recognize one of the unsung members of the bullpen, Craig Breslow, who allowed two hits and no runs in three scoreless innings over three games this week, and who has quietly put together an outstanding year.


  • Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - Quintin Berry (.600/.667/1.200/1.867, 3.27 runs created, 40.90 RC/25 outs) made the most of his at-bats, but there were only five of them. Jonny Gomes (.500/.545/.800/1.345, 3.59 runs created, 17.93 RC/25 outs) was also productive in short at-bats. This week, I'm going to split the award, and it seems fitting, because these guys have had very productive years while flying a little under the radar as regards the team's success. Daniel Nava (.471/.500/.647/1.147, 4.80 runs created, 13.34 RC/25 outs) and Jarrod Saltalamacchia (.467/.467/.800/1.267, 4.64 runs created, 14.49 RC/25 outs).


AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 9/30/2013
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Boston5.27(1)4.05(6)0.618(1)100629765-3
Detroit4.91(2)3.85(2)0.61(2)99639369-6
Oakland4.73(3)3.86(3)0.593(3)966696660
Texas4.49(7)3.9(4)0.565(4)92709171-1
Cleveland4.6(4)4.09(7)0.554(5)907292702
Tampa Bay4.29(9)3.98(5)0.535(6)877591714
Kansas City4(11)3.71(1)0.534(7)87758676-1
Baltimore4.6(4)4.38(9)0.523(8)857785770
LA Angels4.52(6)4.55(11)0.498(9)81817884-3
NY Yankees4.01(10)4.14(8)0.485(10)798385776
Toronto4.4(8)4.67(13)0.473(11)77857488-3
Seattle3.85(12)4.65(12)0.414(12)679571914
Chicago Sox3.69(15)4.46(10)0.414(13)67956399-4
Minnesota3.79(13)4.86(14)0.388(14)639966963
Houston3.77(14)5.23(15)0.354(15)5710551111-6


Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Boston9765
Oakland9666
Detroit9369
Cleveland9270
Texas9171


Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Boston9765
Oakland9666
Detroit9369
Cleveland9270
Texas9171


Standings for the week
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Texas6.57(3)2.71(2)0.835(1)61701
Cleveland6.67(2)3.17(3)0.796(2)51601
Oakland5.5(4)3.33(4)0.714(3)4233-1
Boston8.2(1)5.8(15)0.653(4)3223-1
Tampa Bay5.14(5)3.71(6)0.645(5)52520
Toronto4.43(7)4.14(8)0.53(6)4334-1
Kansas City3.43(10)3.57(5)0.481(7)34431
Detroit1.83(14)2(1)0.46(8)3324-1
Baltimore4.86(6)5.43(14)0.449(9)34431
Seattle4(8)4.67(10)0.43(10)33330
LA Angels3.57(9)5(11)0.351(11)25250
Chicago Sox2.71(11)4.57(9)0.278(12)25250
NY Yankees2.17(13)3.83(7)0.26(13)24331
Minnesota2.71(11)5.14(12)0.237(14)2516-1
Houston1.5(15)5.33(13)0.089(15)1506-1

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