Monday, June 18, 2012

Monday Pythagorean - 6/18/2012

Two out of three, to quote Meatloaf, "ain't bad," but if your .667 weeks are interspersed with 1-5 weeks rather than 5-1 weeks, you're not going to end the season where you want to end it...
  • It's not a bad week, but they've accumulated a lot of losses already, and are rapidly approaching the point at which "not a bad week" is going to be "not good enough."
  • If the Yankees never lose again, it will be hard for the Red Sox to catch them.
  • In the 2+ weeks since they hit their high-watermark (thus far) at three games over .500, they've gone 5-8. The offense, in particular, has struggled, with only three games in that stretch of more than four runs scored, and four games of fewer than two runs scored. Obviously, they've had injury issues, particularly in the outfield. There was no expectation, when the season started, that they'd play the month of June with significant at-bats going to Darnell McDonald and two players who weren't even in the organization, Scott Podsednik and Marlon Byrd. But that's not where the real offensive struggle has come from: 
William Middlebrooks (.212/.289/.212/.502)
Adrian Gonzalez (.232/.279/.357/.636)
Mike Aviles (.255/.276/.291/.567)
Kevin Youkilis (.128/.261/.179/.440)
Jarrod Saltalamacchia (.186/.250/.372/.622)
Dustin Pedroia (.160/.232/.200/.432) 
That group is responsible for over 50% of the team's at-bats for the last two weeks, and they are hitting a cumulative .199/.264/.275/.539. Add in the fact that they've spent the last week in NL parks with their pitchers "hitting" and it becomes obvious why they aren't scoring any runs.
  • Thanks to Franklin Morales, the pitchers avoided an offensive 0-fer, finishing the stretch 1-12 with no walks, 7 strikeouts and two sacrifices.
  • Red Sox Player of the Week - Scott Podsednik (.417/.462/.417/.878) had an excellent week, and for a couple of reasons, having to do with position adjustments and not wanting to give out the award to the same guy every week, I'm tempted to go with him. But the offensive production gap between Podsednik and David Ortiz (.353/.455/.765/1.219) is just too big, so Papi is your winner once more.
  • Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - The pitching was excellent this week. The worst start was the first start, and Beckett was very good after a rough first inning. With no two-game starters, and no heavy and spectacular relief performances, there's a lot to choose from. I want to mention Franklin Morales, who came out of the 'pen to give them a good five inning, two run emergency start last night. But the award goes to Clay Buchholz, whose seven-inning one-run win edges out Felix Doubront's seven-inning two-run win.
AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 6/18/2012
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Texas5.34(1)4.04(5)0.625(1)42254027-2
New York4.75(4)3.89(2)0.59(2)382740252
Chicago4.73(5)4.18(6)0.556(3)37293531-2
Toronto4.77(3)4.29(8)0.549(4)36303432-2
Boston5(2)4.59(11)0.539(5)36303333-3
Los Angeles3.97(12)3.69(1)0.534(6)363136310
Tampa Bay4.33(8)4.03(4)0.533(7)353137292
Baltimore4.53(6)4.3(9)0.524(8)353139274
Oakland3.79(14)3.9(3)0.488(9)33343136-2
Detroit4.42(7)4.59(11)0.483(10)323432340
Seattle4.03(11)4.26(7)0.474(11)32362939-3
Kansas City3.89(13)4.31(10)0.453(12)293529350
Cleveland4.29(9)4.91(13)0.439(13)293633324
Minnesota4.23(10)5.37(14)0.393(14)263926390
Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
New York10062
Texas9765
Baltimore9666
Tampa Bay9171
Los Angeles8775
Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Texas9963
New York9765
Baltimore8973
Chicago8874
Tampa Bay8874
Standings for the week
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
New York4.67(6)2(1)0.825(1)51601
Baltimore6(2)2.83(3)0.798(2)51510
Oakland7.17(1)3.83(9)0.759(3)51510
Texas6(2)3.33(5)0.746(4)42511
Boston4(9)2.83(3)0.653(5)42420
Detroit4.83(5)4(11)0.586(6)42420
Kansas City4.17(8)3.67(8)0.558(7)33512
Chicago3.5(11)3.33(5)0.522(8)3324-1
Toronto3.67(10)3.83(9)0.48(9)33330
Los Angeles1.83(14)2.17(2)0.424(10)33421
Minnesota5(4)6.17(13)0.405(11)24240
Seattle2.83(13)3.5(7)0.405(12)24240
Tampa Bay4.33(7)5.5(12)0.393(13)24240
Cleveland3(12)7(14)0.175(14)15150

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