Monday, January 08, 2007

Wild-card weekend re-cap


What a snoozer. Everyone knew that KC would run Larry Johnson. Including the Colts. So they loaded the box, and dared the Chiefs to throw the ball. KC, under the ever-imaginative Herm Edwards, retaliated by ... running Larry Johnson into the teeth of the defense. Over. And over. And over again.

I said: "I think that the Colts win. Probably by double-digits."

My Prediction: Indianapolis 27, Kansas City 14

Final Score: Indianapolis 23, Kansas City 8


I know that they reviewed the play and reversed the touchdown and awarded Seattle a safety. As far as it goes, that was correct. But I don't think Terry Glenn had possession of that ball before it touched the ground, which would have made it an incomplete pass, and completely changed the game.

Has anyone ever made the complete-unknown-to-conquering-hero-to-choking-loser-goat trip faster than Tony Romo? I don't particularly care for the term "choke" in most cases, and there are lot of professional athletes accused of choking unreasonably for striking out, or fumbling, or throwing incomplete passes, or missing tackles, things that happen at a significant frequency, at just the wrong time. But there is no excuse for the holder to drop a good snap. That's a play that gets made 100 times out of 100. He blew it, big time.

I said: "I don't have any confidence in either of these teams playing well, so the question is, who plays less badly? I think Seattle probably plays marginally less badly..."

My Prediction: Seattle 17, Dallas 13

Final Score: Seattle 21, Dallas 20


The conventional wisdom on this one seems to be "it was a lot closer than the final score." I beg to differ. Watching that game, there was never, not for a single minute, the sense that the outcome was actually in doubt. Yes, the Jets were only 1 touchdown down towards the end of the 3rd quarter. That was because a) Corey Dillon fumbled on the Patriots 15 and b) the Patriots defensive backfield blew one play, which resulted in a 77 yard touchdown. There was never a feeling that the Jets could stop the Patriots if they needed to, and there was never a sense that they could put the ball in the end zone.

I said: " I don't think that the Jets can stop the Patriots running game."
The Patriots run 38 times for 158 yards.

I said: "I don't think that the Jets can stop the Patriots passing game."
Brady was 22/34 for 212 yards, 2 TD, no interceptions
And the Patriots were 11/16 converting on 3rd downs.

I said: "I don't think that the Jets can run effectively against the Patriots."
The Jets ran 16 times for 70 yards. 2 draws to Leon Washington went for 30. The other 14 runs went for 40 yards, fewer than 2 per.

I said: "It is not impossible that the Jets win that game, but I do think it unlikely. Extremely unlikely."

My Prediction: New England 27, NY Jets 16

Final Score: New England 37, NY Jets 16


Eli Manning had a great 1st drive, and a great last drive. In between, it was all Philadelphia. I was right about the winner of this game, but the Giants made a much better game of it than I expected.

My Prediction: Philadelphia 23, NY Giants 13

Final Score: Philadelphia 23, NY Giants 20



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