Monday Pythagorean Report
| R/G | (rank) | RA/G | (rank) | Pythagorean | (rank) | W | L | W | L | Luck | Chicago | 4.79 | (5) | 3.94 | (1) | 0.589 | (1) | 57 | 40 | 64 | 33 | 7 | Anaheim | 4.64 | (8) | 3.95 | (2) | 0.573 | (2) | 57 | 42 | 59 | 40 | 2 | Toronto | 5.02 | (4) | 4.42 | (6) | 0.558 | (3) | 55 | 43 | 49 | 49 | -6 | Boston | 5.46 | (2) | 4.88 | (10) | 0.551 | (4) | 54 | 44 | 54 | 44 | 0 | Cleveland | 4.48 | (10) | 4.09 | (3) | 0.542 | (5) | 54 | 45 | 51 | 48 | -3 | Oakland | 4.73 | (7) | 4.38 | (5) | 0.536 | (6) | 53 | 45 | 53 | 45 | 0 | Minnesota | 4.48 | (12) | 4.14 | (4) | 0.536 | (7) | 52 | 46 | 53 | 45 | 1 | New York | 5.54 | (1) | 5.13 | (11) | 0.534 | (8) | 52 | 45 | 52 | 45 | 0 | Texas | 5.45 | (3) | 5.22 | (12) | 0.52 | (9) | 50 | 47 | 48 | 49 | -2 | Detroit | 4.6 | (9) | 4.43 | (7) | 0.518 | (10) | 51 | 47 | 49 | 49 | -2 | Baltimore | 4.77 | (6) | 4.65 | (9) | 0.512 | (11) | 50 | 47 | 50 | 47 | 0 | Seattle | 4.34 | (13) | 4.57 | (8) | 0.477 | (12) | 46 | 51 | 42 | 55 | -4 | Kansas City | 4.32 | (14) | 5.5 | (13) | 0.391 | (13) | 38 | 60 | 36 | 62 | -2 | Tampa Bay | 4.48 | (10) | 6.03 | (14) | 0.368 | (14) | 36 | 63 | 35 | 64 | -1 | |
|---|
| Chicago | 107 | 55 |
| Anaheim | 97 | 65 |
| Boston | 89 | 73 |
| Oakland | 88 | 74 |
| Minnesota | 88 | 74 |
| Chicago | 102 | 60 |
| Anaheim | 95 | 67 |
| Boston | 89 | 73 |
| Oakland | 87 | 75 |
| Minnesota | 87 | 75 |
| R/G | (rank) | RA/G | (rank) | Pythagorean | (rank) | W | L | W | L | Luck | Cleveland | 4.57 | (7) | 3.14 | (1) | 0.665 | (1) | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -1 | Oakland | 5.43 | (3) | 3.86 | (3) | 0.651 | (2) | 5 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | Toronto | 7.33 | (1) | 5.33 | (12) | 0.642 | (3) | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | Detroit | 5.75 | (2) | 4.75 | (8) | 0.587 | (4) | 5 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 0 | Boston | 4.57 | (7) | 4 | (4) | 0.561 | (5) | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0 | Tampa Bay | 4.17 | (10) | 4 | (4) | 0.519 | (6) | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | Anaheim | 3.86 | (12) | 3.71 | (2) | 0.517 | (7) | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0 | New York | 5.43 | (3) | 5.29 | (10) | 0.512 | (8) | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | Minnesota | 4.13 | (11) | 4.25 | (7) | 0.486 | (9) | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 | Chicago | 4.71 | (6) | 5.29 | (10) | 0.448 | (10) | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | Kansas City | 3.86 | (12) | 5.14 | (9) | 0.371 | (11) | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | Texas | 5.29 | (5) | 7.14 | (14) | 0.366 | (12) | 3 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -2 | Baltimore | 2.83 | (14) | 4.17 | (6) | 0.331 | (13) | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -1 | Seattle | 4.5 | (9) | 6.67 | (13) | 0.328 | (14) | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -1 | |
|---|
4-3, with a split at league-leading Chicago, is not a disaster. They extended their lead by a game over the 2nd place Yankees, and by more over 3rd place (and fading-fast) Baltimore. But they've still been disappointing.
One of the reasons that this has felt like a lack-luster stretch of baseball is that they've stopped scoring runs. When they left Texas on July 6th, they had a 48-35 record, and a 4 game lead over Baltimore and New York, facing them in their next 8 games. They had an excellent opportunity to basically end the division race. Instead, they lost 6-of-8, and they did it because of putrid offense. Since leaving Texas, they're 6-9, and they're averaging 4.8 runs per game. And they haven't been that good - it's skewed by a 17 run performance again New York. They've averaged 3.9 runs/game in the other 14. That's not going to get it done.
| Player | AB | Runs | Hits | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manny Ramirez | 46 | 12 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 11 | 0.304 | 0.448 | 0.696 | 1.144 |
| Jason Varitek | 38 | 5 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 0.316 | 0.409 | 0.579 | 0.988 |
| Trot Nixon | 47 | 7 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 6 | 0.277 | 0.358 | 0.532 | 0.89 |
| Johnny Damon | 62 | 12 | 20 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0.323 | 0.364 | 0.516 | 0.88 |
| Kevin Millar | 37 | 7 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0.297 | 0.471 | 0.405 | 0.876 |
| David Ortiz | 58 | 9 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 9 | 0.224 | 0.324 | 0.431 | 0.755 |
| Tony Graffanino | 14 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.286 | 0.375 | 0.357 | 0.732 |
| Bill Mueller | 50 | 2 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 0.26 | 0.327 | 0.32 | 0.647 |
| Edgar Renteria | 50 | 9 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 0.24 | 0.345 | 0.28 | 0.625 |
| Mark Bellhorn | 22 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.136 | 0.24 | 0.273 | 0.513 |
| Alex Cora | 25 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.231 | 0.24 | 0.471 |
| John Olerud | 22 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.091 | 0.167 | 0.091 | 0.258 |
Manny's been hot. Varitek's been good, as have Nixon and Damon. Millar's not hitting, but he's at least drawing walks (.297/.471/.405 is a very strange line, but has great value, because there are so few outs).
But the rest of the team's been bad. There's just nothing out of the infield at all other than Millar's walks. Nothing from Mueller or Renteria or any of the 2nd basemen. The lineup looks like the Florida keys with the bridges all down. There's no connecting the successful players, so hits are wasted, base-runners are erased on double plays - they can't string a bunch of hits together, because there are outs between all of the hits. Very frustrating.
But this too, shall pass. They're too good for it not to. Frankly, the good news here is that, as bad as they've been for the last 3 weeks, they're still in first, and they've still got a much easier remaining schedule than the Yankees do. The BP playoff odds report says that there's a 56% chance of them winning the division. That's based on how the teams have all played so far, then simulating the rest of the season a million times. I think that the Sox are actually going to play better. In any event, I'm very confident this morning that they end up winning the East.
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