Monday, August 10, 2015

Monday Pythagorean - 8/10/2015

Kind of sad that a 3-3 week where they're only outscored by one is a good week, but for this team, that's where we are...

The Week That Was:

  • 8/4 - @New York 13 - Boston 3 - Highly-touted Boston left-hander Henry Owens makes his Major League debut and is effective, taking a 2-1 lead into the bottom of the 9th. But the first two runners reach, and the bullpen allows them to score, plus one more, and then 9 more in the 7th, so he takes the loss.


  • 8/5 - Boston 2 - @New York 1 - For the second night in a row, a top pitching prospect makes his debut, pitches well through five innings, but takes the loss anyway. This time that's the fate for the Yankees' Luis Severino, who gets matched up against Boston knuckle-baller Steven Wright who is dominant, allowing only four hits and one run through eight innings.


  • 8/6 - @New York 2 - Boston 1 - Eduardo Rodriguez pitches well, but the Boston bats are silent. Jacoby Ellsbury's 7th-inning HR breaks a 1-1 tie and provides the eventual winning run.


  • 8/7 - Boston 7 - @Detroit 2 - Joe Kelly manages to limit his bad inning to two runs, and the Red Sox score early and often en route to a 7-2 win in Detroit. In the process, the Sox lose Koji Uehara on the last play of the game, as he takes a ball off of his pitching forearm. Preliminary indications are that it's not serious.


  • 8/8 - @Detroit 7 - Boston 6 - Boston scores first, Detroit scores last, as a Victor Martinez HR in the bottom of the 7th provides the last lead-change in a game full of them. Wade Miley pitched well through four innings and OK through five, but not particularly well through six, and the bullpen struggles continue.


  • 8/9 - Boston 7 - @Detroit 2 - Jackie Bradley, Jr., has a dominant day, combining a couple of spectacular catches in the outfiield with driving in five runs with a HR and a bases-loaded triple, providing all of the offense necessary for Henry Owens to pick up his first Major League win.








Thoughts and commentary...

  • Congratulations to Henry Owens, for picking up his first Major League win in his second of two pretty good starts this, his Major League debut week.


  • Mike Napoli did some great things in a Boston uniform. But not this year or last. In the long-run, the flag from 2013 will always be there, and so will my affection for him as a Boston fan.


  • David Ortiz hit two monster home runs this week. The one in New York on Wednesday night was measured at 441 feet, the one in Detroit on Friday night was even further.


  • Ortiz' vesting option for next year kicked in, so we will see his 14th season in a Boston uniform next year. He's 11 HR away from 500, which he'll almost certainly get to either in September or early in the 2016 season. And 432 of those have come in a Boston uniform, so he's 18 away from 450 in a Boston uniform, and only 20 behind Yaz' 452. So there's a strong likelihood that a year from now, we'll have seen his 500th, his 450th in a Boston uniform, and Ortiz move into second place on the Red Sox All-Time home run list.


  • Can Jackie Bradley hit Major League pitching? The question remains to be answer, but he sure did yesterday...


  • Red Sox Player of the Week - David Ortiz (.304/.407/.739/1.147, 6.40 runs created, 10.00 RC/25 outs) went deep three times (very deep), and, in the process, locked in his contract for next year.


  • Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - Steven Wright pitched eight outstanding innings in New York, giving up only four hits and one run.


AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 8/10/2015
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Toronto5.28(1)4.14(7)0.61(1)69446152-8
Houston4.42(5)3.73(1)0.577(2)65486152-4
Kansas City4.33(7)3.75(2)0.565(3)624866444
NY Yankees4.81(2)4.25(9)0.556(4)614961490
Baltimore4.4(6)3.92(6)0.553(5)61495654-5
LA Angels4.18(10)3.78(3)0.546(6)60505951-1
Oakland4.1(11)3.79(4)0.536(7)61525162-10
Tampa Bay3.71(15)3.79(5)0.49(8)555756561
Cleveland4.02(12)4.21(8)0.479(9)53575159-2
Texas4.48(3)4.77(13)0.471(10)525855553
Minnesota4.19(9)4.5(12)0.467(11)525955563
Detroit4.43(4)4.82(15)0.462(12)516054573
Seattle3.74(14)4.26(10)0.441(13)496352603
Boston4.21(8)4.8(14)0.44(14)496350621
Chicago Sox3.74(13)4.41(11)0.425(15)466351585
Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Kansas City9765
NY Yankees9072
Toronto8775
Houston8775
LA Angels8775
Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Kansas City9567
Toronto9171
NY Yankees9072
Houston8973
LA Angels8775
Standings for the week
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
LA Angels3.67(12)3.67(3)0.5(8)33421
Houston3.71(11)4.86(11)0.38(12)3416-2
Oakland3.43(14)3.86(6)0.446(11)34431
Toronto5.14(5)1.86(1)0.866(1)61701
Cleveland7.17(1)4(7)0.744(2)4233-1
Seattle5.67(3)5.67(13)0.5(8)33421
Baltimore4.83(6)3.83(4)0.604(5)4233-1
Texas6(2)4.33(9)0.645(3)42420
Tampa Bay5.5(4)4(7)0.642(4)42420
Boston4.33(8)4.5(10)0.483(10)33330
Kansas City4.5(7)3.83(4)0.573(6)33421
Detroit3.67(12)5.33(12)0.335(14)24331
Minnesota3.86(10)8.57(15)0.188(15)16160
Chicago Sox4.17(9)6(14)0.339(13)2415-1
NY Yankees2.83(15)2.67(2)0.528(7)3324-1

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Monday, August 03, 2015

Monday pythagorean - 8/3/2015

If the opposition is scoring in the first inning of every game (ok, there was one in which they didn't), it's hard to expect much better than 3-4...

The Week That Was:

  • 7/27 - Chicago 10 - @Boston 8 - Joe Kelly's struggles continue, as he allows four runs to Chicago in the top of the first. Boston, in doing what has been very unusual during the 2015 season, battles back, taking one run leads in the bottoms of the 4th and 5th innings, but neither lasts as Craig Breslow and Robbie Ross perform nearly as ineffectively as Kelly, and the White Sox win 10-8.


  • 7/28 - Chicago 9 - @Boston 4 - The night after Joe Kelly allowed four runs to the White Sox in the top of the first, Wade Miley allows five. Before the Red Sox sent a single batter to the plate, the White Sox had already scored more runs than the Red Sox would manage as they fell 9-4.


  • 7/29 - Chicago 9 - @Boston 2 - Rick Porcello allows as many runs scored as batters he retires, leaving after 2+ innings with a 6-0 deficit. Boston's initial offensive attempts in the game end with a runner thrown out, by a wide margin, with none out, as third base coach Brian Butterfield adds his contribution to the offensive ineptitude.


  • 7/30 - @Boston 8 - Chicago 2 - For the fourth consecutive game, the White Sox take a lead in the top of the first. This time, however, Stephen Wright, and the bullpen, manage to hold them off the board the rest of the way, while the Red Sox are putting up 8 of their own for the second time in the series. Tonight, it's enough.


  • 7/31 - @Boston 7 - Tampa 5 - Eduardo Rodriguez struggles through five, but never allows a big inning, holding the Rays to one run in each of the first three innings and nothing in the next two. Boston's 'pen outpitches the Rays', and Mike Napoli's 2 run HR in the bottom of the 7th after Tampa took its only lead in the top, results in a Boston win.


  • 8/1 - @Boston 11 - Tampa 7 - For the first, and only, game this week, Boston bats without the opposition having scored in the top of the first. Joe Kelly is dominant for three innings as Tampa gets a Porcellish start from Matt Moore and Boston builds an early 6-0 lead. Kelly nearly gives it all away, but the offense continues producing, and the game ends with the Red Sox evening their record for the week at 3-3.


  • 8/2 - @Tampa 4 - Boston 3 - With a chance to end the week with a win and a winning record, the Red Sox get a strong performance from Wade Milay and take a 3-2 lead into the 8th inning. But Junichi Tazawa gives up two, and the Sox don't score again, falling 4-3 in the game and on the week.








Thoughts and commentary...

  • The Red Sox retired Pedro's number twice - first, in English, on Tuesday night and then, in Spanish, on Wednesday night. I know NESN had Tuesday's, but I was in the park on Wednesday. Very cool to see Pedro and El Tiante on the mound together...


  • Quite a day for Travis Shaw on Saturday. He's not a real prospect at this point, but it's always nice to see someone who has toiled for years in the minors have a moment of glory in The Show. Two HR, four hits, five runs scored - that's a better day than many players who will have better careers will ever have.


  • Sorry, but I just haven't got much more to say. It's been a trainwreck from the start. They've not only been not good, they've been not interesting.


  • Red Sox Player of the Week - Hard to believe, with just two games of action, but Travis R Shaw (.750/.778/1.625/2.403, 6.10 runs created, 76.22 RC/25 outs), in those two games, produced more than anyone else on the team this week. He had one walk to go with his 6-8 with a double and 2 HR.


  • Red Sox Pitcher of the Week - Stephen Wright was effective on Friday, but I am going to dock him some for allowing runs in the first inning and putting the team in a whole. So I'm going to go with Craig Breslow, who threw 5 2/3 scoreless innings over three appearances, including getting out of a first-and-third, no out situation that Porcello handed him on Wednesday night.


AL Pythagorean Projection Report - 8/3/2015
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Toronto5.29(1)4.29(10)0.595(1)63435452-9
Houston4.46(4)3.65(1)0.591(2)63436046-3
Kansas City4.32(7)3.75(2)0.564(3)594562423
NY Yankees4.92(2)4.35(12)0.557(4)584659451
Baltimore4.38(6)3.92(6)0.55(5)57475351-4
LA Angels4.21(8)3.79(5)0.548(6)57475549-2
Oakland4.14(11)3.78(3)0.541(7)57494759-10
Minnesota4.21(8)4.23(9)0.498(8)525254502
Tampa Bay3.61(15)3.78(3)0.479(9)515552541
Detroit4.48(3)4.79(13)0.469(10)495651542
Texas4.39(5)4.8(14)0.46(11)485651533
Cleveland3.84(12)4.22(8)0.456(12)475748561
Boston4.21(10)4.82(15)0.438(13)466047591
Seattle3.63(14)4.18(7)0.436(14)466048582
Chicago Sox3.72(13)4.32(11)0.432(15)445950536
Top 5 projections (using current winning %)
Kansas City9765
Houston9270
NY Yankees9270
LA Angels8676
Minnesota8478
Top 5 projections (starting with today's record, using Pythagorean winning %)
Kansas City9567
Houston9369
NY Yankees9171
Toronto8775
LA Angels8775
Standings for the week
ProjectedActual
R/G(rank)RA/G(rank)Pythagorean(rank)WLWLLuck
Houston6(4)2.83(1)0.798(1)51510
NY Yankees8.86(1)5.14(8)0.73(2)5243-1
Toronto5.5(5)3.67(4)0.677(3)42420
Baltimore4.86(7)4(5)0.588(4)43521
Tampa Bay5.33(6)4.5(6)0.577(5)33330
Cleveland3.43(13)3(3)0.561(6)4334-1
Oakland3(14)2.83(1)0.526(7)33330
Chicago Sox6.71(2)7(15)0.481(8)34431
Boston6.14(3)6.57(13)0.469(9)34340
Detroit4.29(9)5.57(10)0.382(10)34340
Seattle3.71(12)4.86(7)0.38(11)3425-1
Kansas City4.14(11)5.71(11)0.357(12)25341
Minnesota4.17(10)5.83(12)0.351(13)24240
Texas4.86(7)6.86(14)0.347(14)25432
LA Angels2.5(15)5.33(9)0.2(15)1506-1

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